سناریوها، راهبردها و الزامات پاسخگویی به بحران‌های فراگیر: مطالعه موردی پاندمی کووید-19

نوع مقاله : مقاله ترویجی

نویسنده

عضو گروه مطالعات علم و فناوری، مرکز تحقیقات سیاست علمی کشور، تهران، ایران

چکیده

پاندمی کووید-19 اثر غیرقابل‌انکاری بر زندگی بشر داشته است، تا جایی که پیش‌بینی می‌شود بسیاری از کشورها سال پیش‌رو را با افت تولید ناخالص داخلی به پایان خواهند رساند. پاندمی کووید-19 قواعد بازی را به هم زده است و باید با این حقیقت کنار بیاییم که پایان این پاندمی و کشف واکسن و درمان در آینده نزدیک (چند ماه) محتمل نیست. این پاندمی قوی سیاه قرن است. این پاندمی نمایان ساخت که توسعه مبتنی بر اقتصاد و بدون لحاظ کردن سایر ابعاد، ناپایدار بوده و حتی خود می‌تواند منشأ بروز چنین بحران‌هایی شود. این مقاله باهدف بررسی روندهای نوپدید طی چند ماه نخست اپیدمی و دو ماه پس از اعلام پاندمی کووید-19 توسط سازمان بهداشت جهانی، نقاط عطف تصمیم‌سازی را به‌عنوان محورهای شناساننده آینده‌های ممکن معرفی و بر اساس تلاقی آن‌ها سناریوهای پیشنهادی را طراحی نموده است. سه محور: (1) رویکرد به جهانی‌شدن، (2) رویکرد به ارزش، و (3) رویکرد دولت‌ها در مدیریت بحران، به‌عنوان محورهای توسعه‌دهنده سناریوها برگزیده شدند. با شناسایی آینده مطلوب، سیاست‌های نیل به آن معرفی و مورد تحلیل قرار گرفت. در کنار تمام راه‌کارهای پیشنهادشده برای برون‌رفت از این بحران، جامعه انسانی باید پارادایم جهان‌بینی خود را دگرگون ساخته و خود را برای مصالحه با محیط پیرامونی محیا کند.

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